Provincial and Economic Review & Outlook for 2024 AVAILABLE NOW!
26 September 2024
The 2024 Provincial Economic Review and Outlook (PERO) was tabled in the Western Cape Provincial Parliament today by Western Cape Minister of Finance, Deidré Baartman.
The PERO signifies the official start of the budget period in the Western Cape.
It is an annual research publication developed by the Provincial Treasury aimed at informing and guiding policymakers, departments and municipalities on key economic and socio-economic trends that will impact on policy, planning and budgeting in the Western Cape.
“The data in the 2024 PERO show us, that despite facing seemingly impossible tasks, despite not necessarily having the constitutional mandate, the capacity or the national budget, the Western Cape Government has never refused to help her residents when they were in need”, said Minister Baartman.
Key highlights from the 2024 PERO
Economic trends
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Over the past decade (2014-2023), the Western Cape economy expanded by 9.1 % or at an average annual growth rate of 0.9%.
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On average, the bulk of the growth was contributed by the Finance Sector (0.7%) with the Community Services, Government, Transport and Agriculture Sectors each contributing 0.1 percentage points.
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The Agriculture Sector in the Western Cape, which accounts for almost half of South Africa’s agriculture exports, was one of the main drivers of economic growth, recording a remarkable 190.7 per cent growth, while the Manufacturing sector experienced slower progress at 56.7 per cent over this period.
Employment
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Over the past five years, overall employment increased by 7.1%.
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Between 2019 and 2024, youth employment in the Western Cape rose by 3.6%.
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Between 2019 and 2024, employment for individuals with secondary education increased by 24.3%, while those with tertiary education saw a 12.3% rise. This demonstrates the critical role that education plays in securing stable and rewarding employment.
Socio-economic trends
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The Western Cape's fertility rate is declining. The primary driver behind lower fertility rates is higher levels of education, particularly among women.
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The life expectancy for males in the Western Cape is projected to reach 67.4 years by 2026, while females are expected to have a life expectancy of 70.4 years. This is higher than the averages for the rest of South Africa.
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The Western Cape's Gini coefficient has declined from 0.66 in 2002 to 0.59 in 2022, indicating more equal income distribution in the province, in comparison to the national Gini coefficient of 0.68.
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The Western Cape Human Development Index of 0.76 consistently outperforms the national average of 0.66, indicating better overall development outcomes in the province compared to the rest of the country.
Safety and security
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The effectiveness of targeted interventions, such as Law Enforcement Advancement Plan (LEAP) in crime hotspots, demonstrates the potential of localised, data-driven approaches to improving public safety.
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Notably in the LEAP hotspots, robbery at residential areas saw a decrease of 29.3%, driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs decreased by 29.3%, and sexual offences reduced by 4%.
Population trends
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Over the past decade, the Western Cape has seen a 19.6% increase in its population size and over the next ten years, the province should look forward to accommodating an additional 1.196 million people.
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The Western Cape's population boom has been driven most substantially by in-migration from other provinces across South Africa as well as abroad.
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It is estimated that between 2022 and 2026, net migration will account for 51.2 % of the total population growth in the province.
Education and health
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Over the past five years, retention rates improved from 86 per cent in 2019 to 93 per cent in 2023 for primary schools (7 percentage point increase), and for high schools the retention rates improved from 65 per cent in 2019 to 71% per cent in 2023 (7 percentage point increase).
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On average, over the last three years, the province has also witnessed an improvement in systemic test results for Grades 3, 6, and 9, revealing significant gains in Grade 3 scores.
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Over the past decade (2014/15 – 2023/24), the Western Cape has seen marginal growth in the number of public-employed doctors per 100 000 people, from 43.5 to 43.9.
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The Differentiated Models of Care initiative provides tailored, high-quality health services that are more accessible and comprehensive, reducing the need for facility visits. The model shows promise of alleviating pressure on the province’s healthcare system.
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The Western Cape Government implemented the Targeted Universal Testing for TB initiative, which expands testing to include close contacts of TB patients, regardless of whether they show symptoms.
Housing
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By 2022, 96.4% of households in the Western Cape have access to electricity, 91.6% have access to a flush toilet, 84.5% have access to piper water inside the dwelling, and 90% have their refuse removed at least once a week.
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The portion of informal dwellings in the province has decreased from 18.1 per cent in 2013 to 11.8 per cent in 2022.
Minister Baartman continued, “The Western Cape stands at a pivotal moment. Our economy is growing, but we still face unemployment, inequality, and structural economic constraints. Optimism alone will not be enough to overcome our mountain. It will require hard work and the will to succeed. It will require brutal honesty, a laser focus on evidence-based decision-making and targeted interventions, and policies promoting inclusive growth and innovation.”
“The PERO has answered two key questions for our province today:
- Have we made progress? Yes.
- Can we do better? Yes,” concluded Minister Baartman.
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